China Submarines Struggle to Detect USA Ultra Quiet Submarines...Until Now

8 min read

The U.S. Navy has never worried much about China’s submarines for decades. They were noisy and easy to track. Meanwhile, the Chinese military struggled to detect America’s ultra quiet submarines. Until now.

Welcome to That's Life, I Swear. This podcast is about life's happenings in this world that conjure up such words as intriguing, frightening, life-changing, inspiring, and more. I'm Rick Barron your host. 

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In the annals of U.S. naval history, the U.S. has long enjoyed a sense of security for our country. This thinking is even more so when it came to regarding China's submarines. They’re absurdly noisy and easily traceable, thus they posed little concern. Conversely, China struggled to detect America's ultra quiet submarines. 

However, urgency now grips the narrative as China is rapidly closing the substantial gap between the U.S. and Chinese militaries. Advances in submarine technology and undersea detection capabilities carry profound implications for American military strategy, particularly in the shadow of a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Chinese Navy. Courtesy of WIRED

The situation intensifies with revelations that happened in 2023 where China unleashed a nuclear-powered attack submarine equipped with a pump-jet propulsion system, a stark departure from traditional propellers. Satellite imagery captured the unsettling reality: China incorporating noise-reducing technology mirroring the latest American submarines. 

Concurrently, satellite images from Huludao's nuclear-powered submarine manufacturing base unveiled hull sections larger than any existing Chinese submarine, signaling an ominous intent to bolster output.

On top of all this, the western Pacific is transforming into a perilous arena for U.S. submarines. Beijing deliberately built the "Underwater Great Wall," a network of underwater sensor networks across the South China Sea and surrounding regions. This technological daring bestows China with an unprecedented ability to detect enemy submarines, a reality for the U.S. Navy to confront. 

China's underwater sensor networks extend to the seabed near Guam, home to a major American submarine base, disrupting the reliance on stealth capabilities. The military has white boarded various strategies, including deploying unmanned submersible craft to confuse, suppress, and counter China's undersea sensors.

The People's Liberation Army enhances submarine detection by deploying patrol aircraft and helicopters, equipped with sonar-information-gathering buoys and underwater listening devices called hydrophones on cables trailing ships or submarines.

To put a finer point on it,  in August of 2023, China conducted a submarine-hunting exercise lasting over 40 hours in the South China Sea, involving numerous Y-8 anti-submarine patrol aircraft. A few weeks earlier, joint anti-submarine warfare exercises with the Russian navy in the Bering Sea off Alaska underscored a dramatic shift. The era of unchallenged U.S. dominance under the seas around China is unequivocally concluding.

In the past few years, the rapid growth of China's surface fleet has raised significant alarm. Despite surpassing the U.S. fleet in sheer numbers, China's vessels are comparatively smaller and less advanced. In reaction to this development, the U.S. Navy is swiftly adjusting its strategy by reallocating a greater proportion of its forces to the Pacific region, deploying state-of-the-art ships and aircraft to address the emerging challenges.

The concern over China’s military muscle getting stronger and is spreading gave, James Fanell, the former top intelligence officer for America’s Pacific Command, purpose to emphasize the pressing need for new strategies below the waves to confront a more potent adversary.

The problem magnifies in simulations of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, where U.S. submarines, presumed defenders, face an intricate challenge. While sinking Chinese fleet ships could impede invasion, the rising threat to U.S. submarines complicates this task. 

The proximity to the Taiwan Strait amplifies the serious of all this. Envision China's nuclear-powered attack submarines assuming a hunter-killer role, strategically seeking U.S. and allied submarines to the east of Taiwan, warns Brent Sadler, a former U.S. submarine officer, who is now a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a think tank based in Washington D.C.

China's nuclear-powered capability skyrocketed in March of 2023, when Gen. Anthony Cotton, who is head of U.S. Strategic Command, revealed at a congressional hearing, that China has deployed new missiles on its ballistic-missile submarines, capable of striking deep inside the U.S. while remaining near China shores. Hearing that type of information should take center stage as tracking these Chinese submarines becomes a paramount role for the U.S. Navy and its attack submarines in the Asia-Pacific region.

In 2020, a publication by a former People's Liberation Army (PLA) officer unveiled a concept for upcoming Chinese attack submarines. According to the book, these submarines would feature engines mounted on shock-absorbing rafts to enhance vibration dampening. Concurrently, China is actively researching additional noise reduction technologies for submarines, including the development of innovative hull materials and more efficient nuclear reactors for propulsion, as indicated by academic research papers.

Christopher Carlson, a former naval officer, called out how new Chinese submarines rivaling the stealth technology of Russian Akula I-class attack submarines from the 1990s throws light on how critical the situation is becoming. The quietness of these submarines poses an unprecedented challenge, intensifying the urgency for countermeasures. There’s worry about discussions around the origin of China's submarine technology, with concerns about potential sharing of advanced submarine technology between Russia and China in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Chinese submarine at sea. Courtesy of WSJ

Submarines with this type of technology will make them quiet and extremely difficult to find.

However, the problem is tempered by the acknowledgment that a new generation of Chinese nuclear-powered submarines is years away from active duty. There is uncertainty surrounding the United States progress and the potential scrapping of projects underscore the complexity of submarine development. The Seawolf-class submarine program's abandonment in 1995 due to high costs serves as a stark reminder we are losing precious time.

The U.S. Virginia-class attack submarines and the planned Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarines stand as a generation ahead, yet China's strategy to make submarines harder to detect and produce them at scale exploits the U.S.'s stretched resources. 

It’s critical that with China’s intentions, the U.S. should beef up efforts to patrol the region, with squadrons of P-8 aircraft rotated through a base in Okinawa, Japan. There’s another problem that the U.S. lacks a permanent base of American anti-submarine patrol aircraft in the 
Asia-Pacific region. Theres no doubt that tension grips the present, with the acknowledgment that maintaining surveillance depends on possessing the assets to track elusive submarines.

China, feeling the necessity to enhance its sub-hunting capabilities, faces heightened collaboration between the U.S. and its allies. The situation escalates as the U.S. and the U.K. pledge assistance to Australia in building its first nuclear-powered submarines. The U.S. also agreed to sell Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines to Australia as a stopgap measure. Seeing this happening on their front door, is something China's sees as a potential assault on them.

It goes without question the spotlight on the U.S.'s submarine fleet shortfall. Urgent movements relocate more submarines to the Asia-Pacific region, with a declared need for 66 nuclear-powered attack submarines to fulfill global missions. The urgency is underscored by the dwindling fleet, which has 67 nuclear-powered submarines, but only 49 are classified as attack subs. 

To make matters worse, the current forecast is that the U.S. submarine inventory will dwindle to 46 boats by 2030. With current construction only 4 more subs will be added but by 2036! 

To reach an annual construction rate of two submarines, up from the current 1.2, obtain 66 attack submarines, wouldn’t happen until 2049. That’s another 25 years from now.

As for China, their production line looks to have a total fleet of 80 attack and ballistic missile submarines by 2035, which is 11 years away.

Just do the math and the problem becomes crystal clear.

Hainan, China's main base for nuclear-powered submarines, symbolizes an impending military showdown with the U.S. this decade. It goes without saying that the U.S. submarine force will be in greater demand than ever before across the wider Pacific, facing narrowing margins of advantage over its chief adversary.

In this urgent narrative, the clock is ticking, and decisions made today resonate across the unpredictable expanse of future conflicts and challenges. 

Oh, there is one more thing

The advent of hypersonic missiles is reshaping the geopolitical landscape, and the United States finds itself again, lagging behind as China and Russia jump ahead in this new but critical military technology. In a recent display of moxie, Beijing launched a hypersonic weapon in July of 2022, over the South China Sea, reaching speeds exceeding 15,000 miles per hour and circumnavigating the globe at least 20 times the speed of sound. With the capability to reach any point on Earth in less than an hour, this hypersonic missile poses a formidable threat.

China launches hypersonic missile. Courtesy of: Daily Mail

Think of this as a Sputnik moment for the United States.

This test flight, culminating in the missile striking near a target in China, sent shockwaves through Washington, signaling China's advanced capabilities in hypersonics. These weapons, traveling at the speed of sound, possess the ability to execute high-speed attacks, launch from considerable distances, and elude most air defense systems. They can carry both conventional 
 explosives and nuclear warheads. While China and Russia have operationalized such technology, the United States is conspicuously absent from this league.

That said, think about this.

Hypersonics can potentially alter the strategic balance that has long undergirded U.S. defense policy. While the U.S. military may still be the most powerful in the world, hypersonic missiles could help an adversary challenge that superiority by evading U.S. early warning systems designed to detect attacks on North America, or striking U.S. naval assets, including aircraft carriers, as well as key bases abroad.  

Even the most advanced U.S. warship in the South China Sea could be defenseless against a hypersonic attack.

Ballistic missiles can travel at hypersonic speeds but follow a predictable flight path, making them easier to intercept before hitting a target. Cruise missiles, like the U.S. Tomahawk, can maneuver, but most travel more slowly, under the speed of sound. 

Hypersonic missiles combine speed with the ability to fly at low altitudes and maneuver in flight, making them more difficult to spot by radar or satellite. That makes them almost impossible to intercept with current systems. 

In a battle in the South China Sea, Beijing could use hypersonic missiles to more than double its reach, leaving U.S. ships in the region nearly defenseless, and even strike Guam, home to thousands of U.S. troops and key military installations.

Orbit of hypersonic missile. Courtesy of: Daily Mail

As for the United States, it has initiated investments in missile defense systems engineered to counter hypersonic missiles. This includes a collaborative development effort with Japan. Despite these advancements, these defense systems are still in their early stages and are not anticipated to be operational, at best, until 2033.

Despite extensive investment spanning decades, with billions of dollars allocated to various programs to advance hypersonic technology, the United States has encountered persistent setbacks, marked by failures or project cancellations before achieving tangible success. 

Departing from its emphasis on counterterrorism efforts, the U.S. is now recommitting substantial resources to developing hypersonics, as evidenced by the allocation of over $5 billion in the Pentagon's 2023 budget for these cutting-edge weapons. The urgency to overcome the technological disparity is further emphasized by an unprecedented collaboration with the private sector, which includes active participation from Silicon Valley venture capitalists.

What can we learn from this story? What's the takeaway?

The idea of a war between China and the United States over Taiwan is a highly concerning and complex scenario with significant global implications. It's important to note that armed conflict between major powers like China and the United States would have severe consequences, both in terms of human lives and geopolitical stability.

The takeaway from a potential war between China and the United States over Taiwan is that it would have far-reaching and severe consequences across multiple dimensions—humanitarian, economic, geopolitical, environmental, and more. International efforts to prevent such a conflict and promote peaceful resolutions are crucial for global stability and well-being. 

Well, there you go, my friends; that's life, I swear

For further information regarding the material covered in this episode, I invite you to visit my website, which you can find on either Apple Podcasts/iTunes or Google Podcasts, for show notes calling out key pieces of content mentioned and the episode transcript.

As always, I thank you for listening and your interest. 

Be sure to subscribe here or wherever you get your podcast so you don't miss an episode. See you soon.

Show notes
The U.S. never worried much about China’s submarines for decades. They were noisy and easy to track. Meanwhile, the Chinese military struggled to detect America’s ultraquiet submarines. Until now.

supporting links

1.     Can China Catch Up with U.S. Nuclear Submarine Tech? [YouTube]

2.     The Race to Build Hypersonic Missiles [YouTube]

3.     China Is Building a "Undersea Great Wall" To Take on America in a War [The National Interest]

4.     China Might Have 415 Warships by 2030 [The National Interest]

5.     Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario? [STIMSON]

6.     Columbia-Class SSBN [Columbia Class]

7.     China, Ukraine war bring U.S. military and Silicon Valley together [The Decoder]