Book Review From Rick’s Library: Nuclear War, a Scenario

⏱️ 13min read                             

Imagine the unthinkable: someone drops the atomic bomb. What happens next? During this book review a scenario that feels like it belongs to history, but is closer to our reality than most would admit, will reflect in vivid detail, what would unfold. 

In her book, Nuclear War: A Scenario, bestselling author Annie Jacobsen takes us behind the scenes—into the minds of the people whose job is to prepare for the unimaginable. From military strategists to disaster planners, we’ll uncover what really happens when the countdown to nuclear conflict begins and ends. 

This book is about the plans no one wants to think about—but everyone needs to know.” 

Welcome to That's Life, I Swear. This podcast is about life's happenings in this world. Happenings that conjure up such words as intriguing, frightening, life-changing, inspiring, and more. I'm Rick Barron, your host. 

That said, here’s the rest of this story

Abstract of the book  

Books like Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario are indispensable for grasping the complex and disturbing realities behind the decision to deploy nuclear weapons.

Jacobsen, also the author of The Pentagon’s Brain, has invested over a decade conducting interviews with numerous experts and studying vast amounts of recently declassified material. "Nuclear war is madness," she asserts, noting that every expert she spoke to recognizes this truth. Yet the threat of such devastation still looms large.

Her book takes you through how an all-out world nuclear strike would unfold and finish in just 72 minutes.

The numbers alone are horrifying: a single one-megaton bomb on the Pentagon could kill a million people within minutes, with the ensuing conflict likely bringing humanity to the brink of destruction. Jacobsen estimates that by the time it ends, at least five billion lives would be lost either through the blast or nuclear fallout. 

Five billion people. To put that in perspective there are currently just a little over eight billion people in the world today. 

Here’s analogy of what eight billion represents. Imagine the entire population of Earth, all 8 billion people, standing shoulder to shoulder. If we arranged them in a single line, it would wrap around the equator 300 times.

But the toll doesn’t stop there. Jacobsen frames this as not just genocide but an event leading to mass extinction, exacerbated by nuclear winter and a devastated ozone layer. As long as the potential for nuclear war remains, she warns, the survival of humanity hangs in the balance.

Jacobsen describes the first 24 minutes of a nuclear strike by envisioning a chilling scenario in which North Korea launches a missile at the United States. The motivation—whether Kim Jong-un’s paranoia, resentment, or unpredictability—matters less than the mechanics since nine nations possess nuclear weapons, and in many cases, the decision to unleash mass destruction rests solely in the hands of one leader. Be it Kim, Vladimir Putin, or the U.S. president, millions of lives hinge on the judgment of a single individual. (During Watergate, Defense Secretary James Schlesinger, fearing an unstable Nixon might order a strike, reportedly instructed military leaders to clear any nuclear command with him or Secretary of State Henry Kissinger first.)

In Jacobsen’s scenario, the U.S. fires interceptors to neutralize the missile, but they fail—unsurprisingly, given America’s interceptor system has a poor track record. "With just 44 interceptors in total, the U.S. program is more symbolic than effective," she notes.

As the crisis deepens, the doomsday clock starts ticking. Jacobsen walks through each minute, even down to the seconds, as the U.S. president has a mere six minutes to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike on North Korea, risking the destruction of the region and drawing Russia and China into the conflict.

A central theme in Jacobsen's work is the alarming speed at which apocalyptic decisions must be made. In her scenario, global destruction takes just 72 minutes to unfold. (Political satirist Tom Lehrer once joked about World War III lasting 90 minutes—little has changed since the 1960s.)

Jacobsen introduces another unsettling idea: in the chaos of war, especially nuclear war, even the best-laid plans are bound to unravel. History shows that the "fog of war" leads to disrupted strategies, countless mistakes, and miscalculations. And with nuclear conflict, the uncertainty is even greater. Since no one has experienced a full-scale nuclear exchange, all the Pentagon's carefully modeled projections may be worthless.

The unpredictable consequences of panic, infrastructure collapse, military breakdowns, and ensuing violence are impossible to foresee fully. In Jacobsen’s scenario, North Korea fires additional missiles, including a high-altitude detonation that wipes out the U.S. power grid—what a former senior CIA official described as "electric Armageddon."

Jacobsen repeatedly emphasizes that “nuclear war has no rules,” but that’s not entirely accurate. One thing is certain: beyond the immense loss of life, nuclear war would plunge any survivors into complete chaos. Even Nikita Khrushchev, former leader of Russia, once remarked that the living would envy the dead in its aftermath.

Is there anything that can be done to prevent such a catastrophe? Jacobsen places much of the blame on the doctrine of deterrence, which has been central to U.S. policy for decades. The logic is simple: adversaries are discouraged from launching a nuclear strike because they know it would trigger a massive and uncontrollable retaliation.

However, Jacobsen warns that deterrence, while effective so far, is only reliable until it fails. An accident, a miscommunication, or the reckless decision of an unstable leader could easily trigger a nuclear conflict. If that happens, her grim vision of the future becomes all too real. And with no backup plan, the failure of deterrence leaves the world with no way out.

Up to this point, Jacobsen has outlined the grim reality of nuclear conflict, but this is where the questions arise. What is her alternative? If she advocates for the complete abolition of nuclear weapons, she owes her readers an explanation of how that could realistically be achieved. How do we transition from our current situation to a world without nuclear arms?

The theory of deterrence was developed after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by strategic thinkers like Bernard Brodie, who recognized that nuclear weapons had fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Deterrence was seen as the only way to prevent aggression from rival powers without resorting to war.

Entire schools of thought support that the Cold War stayed cold because of nuclear deterrence. Some also argue that the existence of atomic weapons is why we're not currently at war with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine—and the same might be said about tensions surrounding Taiwan currently.

About the author 

Annie Jacobsen is a prominent American investigative journalist and bestselling author, renowned for her in-depth explorations of government secrets, national security, and military history. Her work has shed light on some of American military and intelligence operations' most intriguing and controversial aspects.

Early Life and Education

Born in 1967 in Connecticut, Jacobsen showed an early aptitude for writing and investigative work. She pursued her passion for journalism at Princeton University, graduating in 1989 with a degree in Philosophy and Literature. This educational background would later prove invaluable in her approach to complex, nuanced topics in her writing career.

Career in Journalism

After graduation, Jacobsen polished her skills as a journalist, contributing to various publications. Her work has appeared in prestigious outlets such as:

• The Los Angeles Times Magazine
• The National Review
• The Dallas Morning News

Her journalistic endeavors laid the groundwork for her future as an author, developing her keen eye for detail and her ability to uncover hidden truths.

Books and Major Works

Jacobsen's transition from journalism to long-form non-fiction writing marked a significant turning point in her career. Her books have consistently hit the New York Times bestseller list, cementing her position as a leading investigative literature voice. Her major works include:

1. Area 51: An Uncensored History of America's Top Secret Military Base (2011) 
   • This book offered an unprecedented look into the secretive military base, blending historical research with firsthand accounts.
2. Operation Paperclip: The Secret Intelligence Program that Brought Nazi Scientists to America (2014) 
   • Jacobsen delved into the controversial post-World War II program that recruited German scientists for work in the United States.
3. The Pentagon's Brain: An Uncensored History of DARPA, America's Top Secret Military Research Agency (2015) 
   • This work explored the history and impact of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

Jacobsen's writing is characterized by:

• Meticulous research, often drawing from declassified documents
• Extensive interviews with insiders, whistleblowers, and key figures
• A narrative style that brings historical events to life
• An ability to break down complex topics for a general audience

Awards and Recognition

Jacobsen's work has garnered significant acclaim:

• Finalist for the 2016 Pulitzer Prize in General Nonfiction for "The Pentagon's Brain"
• Multiple New York Times bestsellers

Impact and Legacy

Annie Jacobsen's work has significantly contributed to public understanding of classified government operations and military history. Her books have:

• Sparked debates about government transparency
• Shed light on previously unknown aspects of American history
• Influenced discussions on ethics in military and intelligence operations

As an author and journalist, Jacobsen continues to challenge official narratives and uncover hidden truths, solidifying her place as one of her generation's most important investigative writers. 

What drew my interest in reading this book? 

Over time, I’ve been looking for information on what the lead-up to an atomic war would entail, but more on the aftermath. Annie’s book provides that scenario.

Annie Jacobsen's Nuclear War, A Scenario offers a deeply unsettling exploration of how nuclear war might unfold in today’s geopolitical climate. One of the book's most chilling aspects is its vivid, almost cinematic portrayal of atomic escalation—tracing the steps from initial tensions through miscalculations and human errors that spiral out of control. Jacobsen masterfully balances real-world historical precedents with speculative fiction, making the possibility of a nuclear conflict feel disturbingly close. 

Her sharp attention to the psychological impact on world leaders, military personnel, and civilians alike reveals the sheer terror that would ensue at every level of society. This revelation was not only interesting but horrifying. 

Equally disturbing is her exploration of the fallout—a future where survivors face not just radiation but societal collapse, environmental devastation, and the moral dilemmas of rebuilding amid chaos. The book's gripping realism forces the reader to confront how delicate the global balance of power truly is and the catastrophic consequences that could arise from a single wrong move.

Jacobsen's meticulous research into classified operations and nuclear policy heightens the sense of dread, showing how close we’ve come to such a scenario in the past. The book is as much a warning as it is a gripping narrative, forcing readers to reflect on the precariousness of our world.

What can we learn from this book? What's the take away?  

I’ll cut to the chase, there would be no winners in an all-out nuclear war, none.

Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War, A Scenario provides a chilling look at the realities of nuclear warfare. Key lessons include:

• Consequences of Nuclear Conflict: Jacobsen vividly describes the catastrophic human, environmental, and geopolitical impacts of nuclear war, from immediate destruction to lasting fallout.
• Fragility of Global Security: The book highlights the delicate balance of nuclear deterrence, where miscalculations or accidents could quickly lead to disaster.
• Human Decision-Making: Jacobsen explores how political and psychological pressures during a nuclear crisis can lead to irreversible mistakes.
• Technology and Cybersecurity: She addresses the growing role of AI and cyber threats in nuclear strategy, raising concerns about system vulnerabilities that could trigger conflict.
• Diplomacy and Arms Control: Jacobsen stresses the need for renewed arms control and dialogue to curb nuclear risks, noting the weakening of international agreements.
• Preparedness: The book exposes inadequate civil defense measures, urging better public education on nuclear survival.

Overall, Nuclear War, A Scenario serves as a wake-up call to the continuing threat of nuclear weapons and the need for global cooperation to mitigate these dangers. It emphasizes that nuclear warfare is not just a relic of Cold War history but a present and future risk. 

Well, there you go my friends. That’s life, I swear.

For further information covered in this episode, I invite you to visit my website, which you can find on Apple Podcasts/iTunes, for show notes and the episode transcript.

As always, I thank you for the privilege of you listening and your interest. 

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